01
Context
In trading, the most misleading experience is not loss — it is short-term success.
A perfect breakout, a clean bottom catch, a streak of wins can quickly be interpreted as: I found the method, I understand the market, I should be more aggressive.
But markets are condition-dependent systems. Short-term outcomes often contain a large portion of randomness. When randomness is mistaken for skill, discipline starts to slip.
02
Core idea
Short-term success undermines discipline by rewiring attribution.
Instead of attributing wins to conditions being present, traders attribute them to personal accuracy.
Behavior then drifts naturally: earlier entries, less validation, larger sizing, higher frequency. This is rationale drift.
Once drift begins, evidence requirements is treated as a constraint that slows you down, rather than the firewall that protects the system.
03
Why it matters
Durable edge is not short-term hit rate. It is consistent judgment: repeatable interpretation with clear failure conditions and clean review across environments.